How to make decisions in times of uncertainty

The phrase "economic crisis" is increasingly cited in national and international journals.

Fear of recession, the reappearance of ghosts as "the yard" or schizophrenic devaluations and still unhealed scars of past critical moments resurface and bring bad memories. However, you have to face them again.Especially when it comes to small organizations very sensitive to changes in their environment.

Regardless of economic considerations regarding the same crisis, its causes, the cyclical quality of the economy and other issues, organizations need to take steps to prevent and act thinking ahead. It is necessary to take any action based on reasonable grounds and not on superficial fears (often unfounded).

So, keep in mind some simple guidelines to potential unfavorable contexts and with unexpected consequences: 

1) Do not see problems in terms of solutions, especially when finance and strategy is. This means not begin the decision-making process in reverse, thinking actions without thinking about the causes that motivate. First, consider where you can come problems and why they occur, and then the solutions. Measures such as reducing staffing, limited promotions, deconstruct business units and limit credit to customers, among others, without a solid foundation regarding the impact of context on the organization, can have disastrous consequences and can lead to poor self-fulfilling prophecies. Thinking about solutions rather than problems only limits the range of alternatives available. 

2) Understand the impact of the situation based on the elements making up the Cross of Porter. It is important to understand how the new scenario (and potential future scenarios) can affect our customers, suppliers, the market in general and the direct and surrogate competition. From this, you can develop, using the tool of future scenarios, preventive actions and, why not, find new business opportunities. 

3) Re-evaluate the risks of the investment projects. While in contexts of crisis and recession can be carried out profitable investment projects, it is always advisable to analyze, again, factors such as availability of funding, the project's viability in negative contexts and the readjustment of the project to the new situation come. 

4) Risk Assets.Not always a crisis implies taking of all possible cash selling all financial assets in the portfolio (stocks, bonds, derivatives, etc). While investments in the capital markets may be unfavorable when equities (shares) it is, we must not forget that these moments always find his rebounding (see the example of the evolution of STI during late 2009 to end of 2010). On the other hand, there are assets such as bonds, which have a lower price better performance. Finally, never forget the words of the famous investor Warren Buffet: "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful." 

5) The people matter. Convey a message of safety to the people who make the organization is essential. A real message, not illusory and commitment, so that people can know how you intend to address the potential problems of the future and how they can contribute to maintain the stability of the organization (and thus their jobs). Unity is strength. Regardless of the above items, it is important to emphasize the preliminary analysis methodology and not be blinded by fear to avoid wrong decisions and negative self-fulfilling prophecies and achieve healthy maintain the organization and its people.